Nifty Fair Value Decoded: 25-Year Historical Model + FY26 to FY35 Projections

Nifty Fair Value Decoded: 

25-Year Historical Model + FY26 to FY35 Projections

Discover Nifty's fair value based on 25 years of EPS, GDP, PE, and dividend data. With a fair PE of 21x, explore projected index levels for FY26, FY30, and FY35 to guide your long-term investment strategy.

🧠 Nifty’s Fair Value Decoded: Insights from 25 Years of Data & FY26–FY35 Outlook

Track the data from Below given Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSo7V2qmkkPPgLW37eOkaC9ie1oF2u34HkHISpPVlGTMUXlWmTfi6SSFd_qfr8mnA/pubhtml?gid=824297085&single=true

📊 Introduction

Over the past 25 years, Nifty has mirrored India's economic evolution. From the tech boom of the 2000s to the digitization and manufacturing revival of the 2020s, Nifty's EPS, PE, dividend yield, and PBV have exhibited cyclical yet predictable trends.

This blog analyzes:

• 25 years of Nifty historical data (1998–2025)
  
  

• Dividend points & PBV behavior
  
  

• PE range in bullish vs bearish phases
  
  

• FY26, FY30, FY35 fair value projections using PE = 21x
  
  

🔢 Historical Observations (1998–2025)

💸 Nifty Fair Value Projections (PE = 21x)

These projections consider India's long-term growth story, driven by formalization, infrastructure, domestic demand, and global positioning.

🕵️‍♂️ Key Investor Insights

1. ✅ Fair Zone: PE < 21 + Div Yield > 1.2% & PBV < 3.7 has historically yielded best CAGR returns.

2. ✅ Buy Zone: PE < 18 + Div Yield > 1.2% & PBV < 3 has historically yielded best CAGR returns.
   
   

3. ⚠️ Caution Zone: PE > 25 with flat EPS & PBV > 4 = high risk of time/value correction.
   
   

4. 📊 EPS Drives Price: Long-term bull runs start with sustained EPS growth, not index lows.
   
   

📈 Actionable Strategy for FY26 to FY35

• Track Nifty EPS quarterly to adjust fair value zone.
  
  

• Use 21x PE as the base valuation anchor.
  
  

• Accumulate during undervaluation (PE < 18).
  
  

• Avoid excess exposure when PE > 25 + low dividend yield.
  
  

📆 Timeline of Fair Value Milestones

• 🌀 FY26 Target: 24,785
  
  

• 🌟 FY30 Target: 39,000
  
  

• 🌿 FY35 Target: 68,729
  
  

📃 Conclusion

Fair value investing requires patience and clarity. By anchoring on 25-year EPS growth and maintaining a consistent PE valuation framework, long-term investors can avoid noise and stay aligned with India’s compounding growth story.

📘 Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial plan and risk profile before acting on investment decisions.