π 1. Nominal GDP Growth Analysis
β
India's nominal GDP has historically shown strong growth, with some slowdowns during economic crises (e.g., 2008, COVID-19). Overall GDP has expand from mere 0.5 Tr USD in fy_2000 to estimated 4.1 TR USD this year which is 8X.
π Future estimates suggest stable economic expansion, supporting long-term equity investments.
π 2. Nifty EPS Growth
π Earnings per share (EPS) has grown over time along with GDP expansion but faced downturns during Economic slowdowns.
π Using the median EPS growth rate ensures a more balanced projection for future earnings.
π 3. Nifty High & Low Values
π Nifty has seen historical cycles of highs & lows, influenced by domestic and global events.
π― Fair valuations are more important than short-term fluctuations for investors.
π 4. Historical PE Trends & Fair PE
π§ Based on the average of High PE and Low PE, a Fair PE of 21 is a reasonable benchmark.
πΉ This keeps valuations realistic, avoiding over & Under valuation risks of 24 to 16.
π΅ Projected Nifty Fair Value for FY25: ~ 23627
π Long-term fair value growth remains steady, assuming consistent earnings growth.
π Nifty Fair Value Estimates (FY25 - FY35) π
π’ Nifty Fair Value in FY_30 could be considered at 47522.
π’ Investors can use these estimates of High PE (24) and Low PE (16) to Fair PE (21) to identify potential entry & exit points in the market.
π° Long-term investors can accumulate Nifty at or below fair value levels of 21.
π Market corrections below fair value could be buying opportunities π.
β οΈ Overvaluation risks arise if Nifty trades significantly above its fair value without corresponding earnings growth.