Schedule: Weekly Indices View 28th April 2025 Monday
Nifty Indices view
Broader Market View.
Corporate offers/Action/Results.
Last Week, MF & FII Activity.
Fundamental Data
Intrinsic Value of Nifty
Events.
Nifty Weekly Indices View:
What We discussed Last Week: Nifty was: 23852
Considering the 2 weeks of higher high higher low and the higher close the important level to track this whole week should be 23206 (100 EDMA). Nifty’s strength to sustain above 23206 can help recover further towards 24080 to previous quarter high 24226. We may see Nifty face resistance or profit booking attempt at 24226 as for the past 3 quarters we have not seen Nifty making higher highs. The recovery further towards 24308 to even 24745 could be seen if & only if Nifty is strong enough to move beyond 24226 else biases could be flat to -ve. The -ve trend on the immediate basis before Nifty triggers 24226 could again re-enter temporarily for 1- weeks if & only if Nifty falls below 23206 (100 EDMA). Hence it would be highly advisable to track both the levels closely, during recovery 24226 while during the fall 23206 should be tracked for the decisive move ahead. Anyway, stick to the rules: Buy during falls and avoid buying during rallies. If 21716 was the buying level then 24226 to 25352 is the profit booking zone.
What Happened Last Week: Nifty is: 24040
As discussed Nifty recovered further till 24366 making the new high of the current recovery even moving beyond the quarterly high 24226, this is the 1st attempt after 2 consecutive quarters of lower high lower low. However, profit booking was seen as assumed from quarterly high, yet we can say Nifty made the higher high higher low and the higher close for the 2nd week in a row after the stiff fall since 5 months till 21743 (our target as S3 Bearish Engulfing Candle was 21716). As expected, strong support was seen near 21716 and Nifty recovered 2622 points just within 3 weeks. Nifty closed below 24226 the important level we have been tracking. The correction in Nifty started from 30th September & we saw the total damage of 4533 points in the total 30 weeks which is 17.3% damage. The fall can be splitted into 4 phases. The first fall ‘a’ phase was seen for 2 months (7 Weeks) & 3014 points (-11.5%) which was followed by the “b” recovery phase for 1 month time wise ( Actually just 2 weeks) & 1595 points price wise which was mere 6.9% recovery. The Nifty entered in “c” fall again and we saw 2 months (13 weeks) of the fall where Nifty fell 2893 points price wise which is 11.6%. The whole a+b+c was assumed to end anywhere near 21716 & from there huge buying for 5 months that could take Nifty towards 24227 to even 25352.The overall target for the fall was 21716 which is “S3” of Bearish engulfing we saw the low of 21744 last month which was missed by mere 28 points. Nifty was assumed to enter in the “x” phase where we have already seen 2622 points recovery in the past 7 weeks. Strategy was to consider the 21716 as the strong buying level and do SIP more. Enjoy the whole correction to take the benefits of long term investing. Current recovery is assumed to be towards 24227 to 25352 where again 5% Profits can be booked.
What can we expect This week: Nifty is: 24040
Considering the profit booking we saw last week at 24226 the important level to track this week should be 23847, previous week low. Nifty’s strength to sustain above 23847 can help Nifty recover further for the 3rd week in a row towards 24321, 24602 the new high for this recovery phase or even 24839. However, the whole range of 24226 to 25352 should be considered as 5% Profit booking zone. The -ve trend in the current situation could again re-enter temporary for 2-3 weeks if & only if Nifty falls below 23847 & only in such a case we may see the fall till 23285 (100 EDMA). Hence it would be highly advisable to track 23847 closely for the decisive move ahead. Anyway, stick to the rules: Buy during falls and avoid buying during rallies. If 21716 was the buying level then 24226 to 25352 is the profit booking zone.
Nifty coming week levels:
Pivot: 24084
Resistance: 24321 | 24602 | 24839
Support: 23803 | 23566 | 23285
Sectors Next Week:
Sectors: The +ve trend for the coming week:
Sectors: The -ve trend for the coming week:
Crude: CMP: 63
USD INR: 85.38
BitCoin: CMP: 94631 (No Value, only Trading)
The target during the rally should be 141187 while new buying can be done during any fall in the whole range of 75621 to 42838.
Disclosure: Do not buy or sell before consulting your advisor as the writer may have the position in the above-given indices.
Insider Stories: Big Fish Activities
📈 **India Equity Fund Bought VVIP Infratech** on 28/03/24 in the quantity of 27000 shares, which is a big 0.1% stake. Now they hold 5.01% stake.
📉 **DSP Trustee Sold Prudent Corporate Advisory** on 27/03/25 in the quantity of 1.7 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.41% stake. Now they hold just 4.65% stake.
📉 **Florintree Enterprise Sold IdeaForge Technology** on 28/03/25 in the quantity of 10.10 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.34% stake. Now they hold just 0% stake.
📈 **Counter Cyclical Fund Bought DHP India** on 28/03/24 in the quantity of 4393 shares, which is a big 0.15% stake. Now they hold 6.98% stake.
📈 **NAC Capital Emerging Fund Bought Last Mile Ent** on 24/03/24 in the quantity of 10000 shares, which is a big 0.01% stake. Now they hold 9.85% stake.
📉 **UTI Investment Advisory Sold Radiant Cash Management** from 20/02/25 to 28/03/25 in the quantity of 39.2 Lakh shares, which is a Very big 3.67% stake. Now they hold just 2.92% stake.
📈 **Abrdn Asia Bought JB Chemicals** on 27/03/24 in the quantity of 33.38 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.14% stake. Now they hold 5.6% stake.
📉 **Fincare Business Services Sold AU Small Finance** from 26/02/24 to 29/03/25 in the quantity of 6 Cr shares, which is a Very big 8.02% stake. Now they hold just 0.01% stake.
📈 **ICICI Prudential MutualFund Bought Max financial** on 27/03/24 in the quantity of 31.82 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.92% stake. Now they hold 5.9% stake.
📈 **ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund Bought IndusInd Bank** on 27/03/24 in the quantity of 3.42 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.04% stake. Now they hold 5.01% stake.
📈 **Wasatch Advisors Bought Prudent Corporate Advisory** on 27/03/24 in the quantity of 2.61 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.63% stake. Now they hold 5.29% stake.
📉 **Aberdeen Asia Sold KFinTech** on 27/03/25 in the quantity of 76 Lakh shares, which is a Very big 4.41% stake. Now they hold similar 4.41% stake.
📈 **Counter Cyclical Fund Bought DHP India** on 27/03/24 in the quantity of 4705 shares, which is a big 0.16% stake. Now they hold 6.83% stake.
📉 **SBI Mutual Funds Sold Lemon Tree Hotels** on 26/03/25 in the quantity of 4.35 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.05% stake. Now they hold 5.17% stake.
📉 **Tau Investment Holdings Sold JB Chemicals & Pharma** on 27/03/25 in the quantity of 89.83 Lakh shares, which is a big 5.78% stake. Now they hold 47.88% stake.
📈 **HDFC MUtual Funds Bought Delhivery** on 25/03/24 in the quantity of 9.5 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.13% stake. Now they hold 5.04% stake.
📈 **Bandhan MF Bought ECOS Mobility** on 25/03/24 in the quantity of 3 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.5% stake. Now they hold 7.2% stake.
📉 **Equity Intelligence India (Porinju) Sold Kaya** on 24/03/25 in the quantity of 57825 shares, which is a big 0.44% stake. Now they hold 4.36% stake.
📉 **AllianceBernstein L.P. & PAC Sold GNFC** on 21/03/25 in the quantity of 29.5 Lakh shares, which is a big 2% stake. Now they hold 3% stake.
📈 **DSP Trustee Bought Aarti Drugs** on 21/03/24 in the quantity of 19575 shares, which is a big 0.02% stake. Now they hold 7.04% stake.
📈 **Equity Intelligence India (Porinju) Bought IKIO Lighting** on 21/03/24 in the quantity of 3.73 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.48% stake. Now they hold 5.02% stake.
📈 **Aquilo House Bought Aavas Financier** on 21/03/24 in the quantity of 1.8 Cr shares, which is a big 22.5% stake. Now they hold 22.5% stake.
📉 **India Advantage Fund Sold EPACK Durable** from 26/12/24 to 21/03/25 in the quantity of 21.4 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.23% stake. Now they hold 3.79% stake.
📈 **GIC Bought Prestige Estates** on 20/03/24 in the quantity of 1.5 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.03% stake. Now they hold 5.01% stake.
📉 **HNI Investor Madhusudan Kela Sold Choice International** from 17/09/24 to 21/03/25 in the quantity of 57.23 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.87% stake. Now they hold 9.24% stake.
📈 **HNI Investor Madhusudan Kela Bought Windsor Machines** on 17/03/24 in the quantity of 65.15 Lakh Preference shares, which is a big 7.71% stake. Now they hold 18.56% stake.
📉 **Life Insurance Corporation Sold PTC India** from 08/01/18 to 20/03/25 in the quantity of 63 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.12% stake. Now they hold 4.24% stake.
📉 **SBI MF Sold Whirlpool of India** on 19/03/25 in the quantity of 3.65 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.28% stake. Now they hold 5.1% stake.
📉 **Rajasthan Global Securities Sold Yuvraaj Hygiene** on 20/03/25 in the quantity of 18 Lakh shares, which is a big 1.99% stake. Now they hold 7.27% stake.
📈 **Counter Cyclical Investment Bought DHP India** on 19/03/24 in the quantity of 4427 shares, which is a big 0.15% stake. Now they hold 6.67% stake.
📈 **Century India Opportunity Fund Bought Mercury Trade Link** on 18/03/24 in the quantity of 1 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.73% stake. Now they hold 5.14% stake.
Disclosure: Do Not Buy or sell before consulting your advisor as the writer may have the position in the above-given stocks or indices.
GDP: Demand Muted
Inflation: Cooled Off
Fundamentals: fy24 Revenue growth and Profit Growth
SALES_ PROFIT_ Margin & VALUATIONS:
Based on the provided chart showing the Nifty 500 Sales and Profit Growth trends, here are the key insights for investors:
FY22 (Post-COVID Recovery):
Sales Growth: 26%
Profit Growth: 50%
The post-COVID recovery witnessed strong growth in both sales and profits due to pent-up demand and a low base effect. This period contributed to a significant market rally.FY23 (Impact of Global Events):
Sales Growth: 21%
Profit Growth: 6%
Inflationary pressures due to the Russia-Ukraine war significantly impacted profit margins. Despite moderate sales growth, profits were muted, causing market corrections during this period.FY24 (Recovery and Growth):
Sales Growth: 8%
Profit Growth: 29%
Recovery in sales and profitability led to renewed investor confidence and a market rally.FY25 (Current Year Trends):
Q1:
Sales Growth: 9%
Profit Growth: 4%
H1:
Sales Growth: 10%
Profit Growth: 5%
Muted sales growth and declining profit trends are evident. This reflects challenging market conditions, potentially due to high-interest rates, inflation, or subdued demand, resulting in market corrections.9M:
Sales Growth: 7.9%
Profit Growth: 5.5%
Muted sales growth and declining profit trends are evident. This reflects challenging market conditions, potentially due to high-interest rates, inflation, or subdued demand, resulting in market corrections.
Investor Takeaways:
Post-COVID Surge: Take advantage of recovery periods with high growth due to low bases and demand surges.
Global Headwinds: Monitor geopolitical events and inflationary pressures that can significantly affect profitability.
Current Year Challenges: A cautious approach is advised as sales and profit growth are subdued, indicating slower economic momentum. Focus on sectors showing resilience or counter-cyclicality.
Investors should diversify and align portfolios with macroeconomic trends, focusing on quality companies with strong fundamentals for long-term growth.
ANNUAL MACRO INDIA:
Nifty Dividend Points:
Actual Dividends Received This year in comparision to last Year 11% has grown by 30%. If Investor received 1 Lakh Dividends Last year this year they should have receive 1.3 lakh for Nifty50 Companies. (As last year Profits were 29% high, Q1Fy25 Got 45% Dividend inflow which gave overall boost to Fy25 Dividends)
Growth of Nifty 50 dividends over the past 12 years, highlighting how long-term investors have benefited from consistent and increasing dividends.
Nifty 50 Dividend Analysis:
Consistent Dividend Growth:
Over the years, the Nifty 50 index has demonstrated consistent dividend payouts, reflecting the financial health and profitability of its constituent companies.
Dividends have grown substantially from 88 points in FY 2012-13 to an estimated 294 points in FY 2024-25, indicating a long-term trend of increasing passive income.
Remarkable Growth Phases:
2014-15 saw a strong 27% growth, indicating an era of increasing corporate profitability.
A record 62% growth in FY 2021-22 highlights recovery and resilience post-pandemic.
Challenges:
There have been minor declines in certain years, such as -21% in FY 2020-21, likely due to global disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the subsequent strong recovery shows the robustness of the Nifty 50 companies.
Current Momentum:
Dividend growth for FY 2023-24 stood at 4X, and the current financial year (till November FY25) already shows an impressive 38% increase, specifically due to sharp increase in Profits last year, the dividends for last closing year are paid during this early financial year.
Long-term Wealth Potential:
The steady rise in dividends demonstrates the potential of the Nifty 50 for creating a reliable stream of passive income, which grows over time.
This makes it an attractive option for long-term investors focused on compounding wealth and securing passive income.
Investor Takeaway: The Nifty 50 index serves as an excellent choice for investors looking to combine capital appreciation with consistent and growing dividend income. By reinvesting dividends or utilizing them as passive income, investors can leverage this trend for long-term wealth generation.
Nifty Intrinsic Value as per current earnings:
🔍 Key Highlights: Historical Data (1997–2024)
📈 EPS & Nifty Growth Trends
EPS Growth (1997–2024):
CAGR over 25 years: ~11.4%
EPS in 1997–98: ₹70 → 2023–24 EPS: ₹970
EPS has shown consistent long-term growth, despite short-term volatility (e.g., dips during 2008 crisis, 2020 pandemic).
Nifty Index Movement:
1997–98 Nifty High: 1297 → 2023–24 High: 22,527
Nifty's High and Low have steadily increased, reflecting growing investor confidence and economic expansion.
📊 PE Valuation Range (HPE & LPE)
Over the long term:
High PE (HPE) ranged: 19–29
Low PE (LPE) ranged: 11–21
Average Fair PE estimated: 21
🏦 Dividend Trends
Dividends per share have steadily increased:
₹21 (1997–98) → ₹289 (2023–24)
Indicates rising profitability and shareholder returns.
📌 Recent Year Insights
2023–24 EPS: ₹970
Nifty PE (Fair): 21
Fair Value Estimate: ₹20,364 (EPS × PE)
Actual High: ₹22,011 → Slightly above fair value (indicates slightly stretched valuation)
📅 Growth Trends (CAGR Analysis)
🟢 Key Insight: Nifty and EPS have consistently outpaced GDP, reflecting improved efficiency, formalization, and corporate profit growth.
📈 Future Projections: 2024–2035
⚙️ Assumptions
GDP (Current Price) Growth: 10%
EPS Growth: 15% annually
PE: ~21
🔮 Nifty Target Estimates
🔑 Insight: If assumptions hold, Nifty could potentially 4x in the next 10 years, supported by strong earnings growth.
🧮 Valuation Check (Current)
EPS FY24: ₹970
Trailing PE: 23.0 → Slightly above fair PE of 21
PEG Ratio: ~4.6 → Indicates overvaluation based on growth vs valuation
💡 Investor Takeaways
✅ Positives:
Strong long-term earnings growth (~11.4% CAGR)
Nifty has historically traded within a known PE band (18–24)
Dividend payouts increasing steadily
Projected earnings growth of 15% will drive index higher if sustained
⚠️ Risks/Cautions:
Current valuations are slightly above long-term fair PE → watch for corrections
Short-term EPS dips (e.g., in 2020) show susceptibility to macro shocks
High PEG ratio suggests premium valuation vs. growth potential
📌 Strategies for Investors:
SIP/Long-term investing remains favorable given the strong historical compounding and future potential
Rebalancing advisable if Nifty crosses upper valuation bands (PE >24)
Consider dividend growth stocks for added income and stability
NIFTY INCLUSIONS & EXCLUSIONS:
The NIFTY 50 index comprises 50 diversified stocks representing key sectors of the Indian economy. Inclusion and exclusion of companies in this index are primarily based on free-float market capitalization and liquidity criteria.
Eligibility Criteria for NIFTY 50 Inclusion:
1. Liquidity: The stock should have traded at an average impact cost of 0.50% or less during the last six months for 90% of the observations, for a basket size of ₹100 crore.
2. Listing History: A minimum listing history of one calendar month as of the cut-off date.
3. Derivatives Eligibility: The company must be allowed to trade in the Futures & Options (F&O) segment.
4. Free-Float Market Capitalization: The company's free-float market capitalization should be at least 1.5 times that of the smallest constituent in the NIFTY 50.
Note: The index is rebalanced semi-annually, with changes typically announced four weeks in advance.
Analysis:
- Zomato: With a free-float market capitalization of ₹213,274 crore, Zomato surpasses the threshold for inclusion. If it meets the liquidity and derivatives eligibility criteria, it stands a strong chance for inclusion.
- Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN): Holding a free-float market capitalization of ₹112,406 crore, JIOFIN also exceeds the required threshold. Its inclusion would depend on meeting other criteria, such as liquidity and F&O eligibility.
- Britannia and BPCL: Both companies have relatively lower free-float market capitalizations (₹57,308 crore and ₹58,667 crore, respectively). If their market capitalizations fall below the threshold or if there are better candidates for inclusion, they might face exclusion during the rebalancing.
In summary, Zomato and Jio Financial Services are strong candidates for inclusion in the NIFTY 50, provided they meet all eligibility criteria. Conversely, Britannia and BPCL could be at risk of exclusion if they no longer meet the necessary benchmarks.
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