📢 5 STEPS TOWARDS WEALTH 🚀 The Indian Stock Market Way

📍 Delhi | 22nd March 2025 | Saturday / 🕕 5:59 PM - 9:01 PM (Entry from 5:30 PM onwards)

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Weekly Indices View 20th January 2025 Monday | Updated Every Saturday

Lesson 4/21 | Study Time: 15 Min

Course: NIFTY-50 Daily Tracker: Stay Updated on the Indian Stock Market Index

Weekly Indices View 20th January 2025 Monday | Updated Every Saturday

Schedule: Weekly Indices View 20th January 2025 Monday

Nifty Indices view
Broader Market View.
Corporate offers/Action/Results.
Last Week, MF & FII Activity.
Fundamental Data
Intrinsic Value of Nifty
Events.

Nifty Weekly Indices View:

What We discussed Last Week: Nifty was: 23432

We have not discussed Weekly Indices Views last week.

What Happened Last Week: Nifty is: 23203

Last week was the 2nd week in a row with the Nifty making lower highs, lower lows and lower close, this week was even the week with the lowest low of the correction. The correction in the Nifty started from the 30th September after the strong 20 weeks of rally where Nifty rallied 4456 points which was a 20.4% rally starting from 13th May. Nifty recent correction which started from 30th September took 16 weeks damaging 3030 points which is 12.3% correction. Since the beginning of the correction we saw Monthly bullish engulfing suggesting the correction of 23550 to 21716, we already saw the 1st target getting cleared as the fall was seen till 23047 last week which was 52 WEMA. Some supportive attempts could be seen here. Any recovery is assumed maximum till 25907 from where again strong profit booking could be seen. Hence Nifty’s trend for next few months could be seen in the range of 25907 to 21716. Long term investors can do the SIP during this correction mode. Last week Nifty made the lowest low but the closing was seen near its open suggesting a buying attempt near the low which is 52 WEMA. Anyway the strategy should be simple, buy during falls and be cash rich during the rallying market.

What can we expect This week: Nifty is: 23203

Considering the “doji” candle at the supportive level of 52 WEMA, the important level to track this week should be 23392. Nifty’s attempt to move beyond 23392 can help Nifty recover towards 23726 in the short term this week itself. The fall of 16 weeks and 3030 points could be stretched further towards 22691 if & only if Nifty fails to sustain above 23392, hence it would be highly advisable to track 23392 closely this week for the decisive move ahead. Anyway, stick to the rules: Buy during falls and avoid buying during rallies.

Nifty coming week levels:

Pivot: 23214 (50EDMA)

Resistance: 23726

Support: 22691

Sectors Next Week:

Sectors: The +ve trend for the coming week:

Sectors: The -ve trend for the coming week: FMCG, Nifty _IT, Growth_15, Value_20, Services

Crude: CMP: 77.4

USD INR: 86.52

BitCoin: CMP: 104536 (No Value, only Trading)

New Buying can be done during the whole range of 75621 to 42838 all with the target of 141187 in the next 12-15 months.

Disclosure: Do not buy or sell before consulting your advisor as the writer may have the position in the above-given indices.

Insider Stories: Big Fish Activities

📈 **Invesco Mutual Fund Bought Awfis Space Solutions** on 10/01/24 in the quantity of 5784 shares, which is a big 0.08% stake. Now they hold 5% stake.

📈 **Smallcap World Fund Bought Ramkrishna Forgings** on 09/01/24 in the quantity of 36.4 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.01% stake. Now they hold 7.02% stake.

📈 **Invesco Mutual Fund Bought Entero Healthcare Solutions** on 09/01/24 in the quantity of 31596 shares, which is a big 0.07% stake. Now they hold 5% stake.

📈 **Motilal Oswal Fund Bought V2 Retail** on 08/01/24 in the quantity of 46724 shares, which is a big 0.13% stake. Now they hold 5.05% stake.

📉 **Axis Mutual Fund Sold PI Industries** on 08/01/25 in the quantity of 69120 shares, which is a big 0.05% stake. Now they hold 2.97% stake.

📈 **Invesco Mutual Fund Bought Ethos Ltd** on 03/01/24 in the quantity of 53919 shares, which is a big 0.22% stake. Now they hold 5.21% stake.

📉 **India Business Excellence Fund Sold INTEC Capital** on 02/01/25 in the quantity of 3.7 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.03% stake. Now they hold 17.81% stake.

📈 **LIC Bought NHPC** on 08/01/24 in the quantity of 38 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.03% stake. Now they hold 5.03% stake.

📉 **BlackRock Sold PTC India** on 07/01/25 in the quantity of 3.31 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.11% stake. Now they hold 3.74% stake.

📈 **HDFC MF Bought AxisBank** on 06/01/24 in the quantity of 14.9 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.05% stake. Now they hold 5.02% stake.

📉 **Smallcap World Fund Sold Tanla Platforms** on 03/01/25 in the quantity of 27.79 Lakh shares, which is a big 2% stake. Now they hold 3.33% stake.

📉 **Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund Sold TeamLease** on 06/01/25 in the quantity of 10204 shares, which is a big 0.06% stake. Now they hold 7.36% stake.

📈 **Counter Cyclical Investment Bought DHP India Ltd** on 03/01/24 in the quantity of 3811 shares, which is a big 0.13% stake. Now they hold 6.26% stake.

📉 **India Business Excellence Fund Sold Intec Capital** on 02/01/25 in the quantity of 3.73 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.11% stake. Now they hold 3.74% stake.

📉 **UTI MF Sold Metropolis Healthcare** on 02/01/25 in the quantity of 32559 shares, which is a big 0.06% stake. Now they hold 5.18% stake.

📈 **ITC Hotels Bought International Travel House** on 01/01/25 in the quantity of 39.2 Lakh shares through scheme of arrangement, which is a big 48.96% stake from ITC. Now they hold 48.96% stake.

📈 **ITC Hotels Bought Gujarat Hotels** on 01/01/25 in the quantity of 17.33 Lakh shares through scheme of arrangement, which is a big 45.78% stake from ITC. Now they hold 45.78% stake.

📉 **HDFC MF Sold Avalon Technology** on 01/01/25 in the quantity of 14.7 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.22% stake. Now they hold 6.17% stake.

📈 **SBI MF Bought Rallis** on 30/12/24 in the quantity of 1.81 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.09% stake. Now they hold 7.05% stake.

📉 **Promoter Nishant Pitti Sold Easy Trip Planners** on 31/12/24 in the quantity of 5 Cr shares, which is a big 1.41% stake. Now they hold 12.8% stake.

📈 **SBI MF Bought CESC** on 24/12/24 in the quantity of 9.44 Lakh shares, which is a big 0.07% stake. Now they hold 7.16% stake.

📉 **India Advantage fund Sold EPACK Durable** from 30/08/24 to 24/12/24 in the quantity of 19.9 lakh shares, which is a big 2.07% stake. Now they hold 6.03% stake.

📈 **HDFC MF Bought Balkrishna Industries** on 20/12/24 in the quantity of 88347 shares, which is a big 0.05% stake. Now they hold 5.02% stake.

📈 **Ultratech Bought India Cements** on 24/12/24 in the quantity of 10.14 Cr shares, which is a big 32.72% stake. Now they hold 55.49% stake.

📈 **Bandhan MF Bought ECOS Mobility & Hospitality** on 20/12/24 in the quantity of 15000 shares, which is a big 0.02% stake. Now they hold 5.01% stake.

📉 **Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund Sold Fortis Healthcare** on 20/12/24 in the quantity of 1.51 Cr shares, which is a big 2.01% stake. Now they hold 2.98% stake.

📉 **TT International Asset Management Sold Car Trade Tech** on 23/12/24 in the quantity of 49007 shares, which is a big 0.1% stake. Now they hold 4.92% stake.

📈 **GDL Bought Snowman Logistics** on 23&24/12/24 in the total quantity of 24 Lakh shares, which is a big 1.3% stake. Now they hold 50.01% stake.

📉 **TPG Growth Fund Sold Solara Active Pharma** on 19/12/24 in the quantity of 7.28 Lakh shares, which is a big 2.02% stake. Now they hold 3.89% stake.

Disclosure: Do Not Buy or sell before consulting your advisor as the writer may have the position in the above-given stocks or indices.

GDP: Strong Demand

Inflation: Inflated in

Fundamentals: fy24 Revenue growth and Profit Growth

SALES_ PROFIT_ Margin & VALUATIONS:

Based on the provided chart showing the Nifty 500 Sales and Profit Growth trends, here are the key insights for investors:

FY22 (Post-COVID Recovery):

Sales Growth: 26%
Profit Growth: 50%
The post-COVID recovery witnessed strong growth in both sales and profits due to pent-up demand and a low base effect. This period contributed to a significant market rally.

FY23 (Impact of Global Events):

Sales Growth: 21%
Profit Growth: 6%
Inflationary pressures due to the Russia-Ukraine war significantly impacted profit margins. Despite moderate sales growth, profits were muted, causing market corrections during this period.

FY24 (Recovery and Growth):

Sales Growth: 8%
Profit Growth: 29%
Recovery in sales and profitability led to renewed investor confidence and a market rally.

FY25 (Current Year Trends):

Sales Growth: 9%
Profit Growth: 4%

Sales Growth: 10%
Profit Growth: 5%
Muted sales growth and declining profit trends are evident. This reflects challenging market conditions, potentially due to high-interest rates, inflation, or subdued demand, resulting in market corrections.

Investor Takeaways:

Post-COVID Surge: Take advantage of recovery periods with high growth due to low bases and demand surges.
Global Headwinds: Monitor geopolitical events and inflationary pressures that can significantly affect profitability.
Current Year Challenges: A cautious approach is advised as sales and profit growth are subdued, indicating slower economic momentum. Focus on sectors showing resilience or counter-cyclicality.

Investors should diversify and align portfolios with macroeconomic trends, focusing on quality companies with strong fundamentals for long-term growth.

Nifty Dividend Points:

Growth of Nifty 50 dividends over the past 12 years, highlighting how long-term investors have benefited from consistent and increasing dividends.

Nifty 50 Dividend Analysis:

Consistent Dividend Growth:

Over the years, the Nifty 50 index has demonstrated consistent dividend payouts, reflecting the financial health and profitability of its constituent companies.
Dividends have grown substantially from 88 points in FY 2012-13 to an estimated 254 points in FY 2024-25, indicating a long-term trend of increasing passive income.

Remarkable Growth Phases:

2014-15 saw a strong 27% growth, indicating an era of increasing corporate profitability.
A record 62% growth in FY 2021-22 highlights recovery and resilience post-pandemic.

Challenges:

There have been minor declines in certain years, such as -21% in FY 2020-21, likely due to global disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the subsequent strong recovery shows the robustness of the Nifty 50 companies.

Current Momentum:

Dividend growth for FY 2023-24 stood at 11%, and the current financial year (till November FY25) already shows an impressive 28% increase, indicating potential upside for investors seeking income growth.

Long-term Wealth Potential:

The steady rise in dividends demonstrates the potential of the Nifty 50 for creating a reliable stream of passive income, which grows over time.
This makes it an attractive option for long-term investors focused on compounding wealth and securing passive income.

Investor Takeaway: The Nifty 50 index serves as an excellent choice for investors looking to combine capital appreciation with consistent and growing dividend income. By reinvesting dividends or utilizing them as passive income, investors can leverage this trend for long-term wealth generation.

Nifty Intrinsic Value as per current earnings:

NIFTY FAIR VALUE:

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NIFTY INCLUSIONS & EXCLUSIONS:

The NIFTY 50 index comprises 50 diversified stocks representing key sectors of the Indian economy. Inclusion and exclusion of companies in this index are primarily based on free-float market capitalization and liquidity criteria.

Eligibility Criteria for NIFTY 50 Inclusion:

1. Liquidity: The stock should have traded at an average impact cost of 0.50% or less during the last six months for 90% of the observations, for a basket size of ₹100 crore.

2. Listing History: A minimum listing history of one calendar month as of the cut-off date.

3. Derivatives Eligibility: The company must be allowed to trade in the Futures & Options (F&O) segment.

4. Free-Float Market Capitalization: The company's free-float market capitalization should be at least 1.5 times that of the smallest constituent in the NIFTY 50.

Note: The index is rebalanced semi-annually, with changes typically announced four weeks in advance.

Analysis:

- Zomato: With a free-float market capitalization of ₹213,274 crore, Zomato surpasses the threshold for inclusion. If it meets the liquidity and derivatives eligibility criteria, it stands a strong chance for inclusion.

- Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN): Holding a free-float market capitalization of ₹112,406 crore, JIOFIN also exceeds the required threshold. Its inclusion would depend on meeting other criteria, such as liquidity and F&O eligibility.

- Britannia and BPCL: Both companies have relatively lower free-float market capitalizations (₹57,308 crore and ₹58,667 crore, respectively). If their market capitalizations fall below the threshold or if there are better candidates for inclusion, they might face exclusion during the rebalancing.

In summary, Zomato and Jio Financial Services are strong candidates for inclusion in the NIFTY 50, provided they meet all eligibility criteria. Conversely, Britannia and BPCL could be at risk of exclusion if they no longer meet the necessary benchmarks.

Schedule Of Events