📢 5 STEPS TOWARDS WEALTH 🚀 The Indian Stock Market Way
Indices View Nifty 2023:
What we discussed in 2023: Nifty was 18105:
Considering slow down in world GDP and as it is expected that slow down could be seen for next few years it seems difficult for Dow to make again lifetime high this year. Considering DowJones making yearly low and Nifty with yearly high but we did not see our even 1st target of 19638 getting cleared and Nifty did not even close above previous year high suggest pressure at higher level. The most important level to track this whole year should be the tail of the hammer candle seen last year due to strong buying, 15183. Yes, any fall till 15896 to 15183 should be treated as the normal fall and buying again can be estimated from this range. Nifty if is able to sustain above 15183 then again we may see the +ve bias continuing further for the 7th year in the row even after making the historical run of higher high for 6 year towards higher high 19638 and clear our year 2014’s pending retracement targets which we have been waiting from 6357 Nifty. 5% profit booking should be done at 19638 as you have been accumulating form long time. Rally further towards 21097 or even 23306 could also be seen in later years in such a case. The -ve trend in the current situation could again re-enter after the long 6 years of higher highs like US market if & only if Nifty does not sustain above 15183 & only in such a case we may see 13687, else bias could be flat to +ve. Hence track 15183 closely this year for the decisive move ahead. The Rule should be simple: New buying can be done during any falls to benefit from the rally.
What happened in 2023: Nifty is 21731:
Despite slower growth worldwide the decline of Inflation made the profits boom this year. The US also performed better than estimates. Nifty for the full year was able to sustain above 15183 even during the correction. We saw the long correction with the limited downside till 16828 last year. Nifty sustaining above 15183 helped Nifty make the higher high for the 7th year in the row. Yes, Nifty made the highest ever high, Higher low and highest ever close this year. We saw the long 6 years of correction with the damage of 4104 nifty points which was 65% of the big damage during fy_2008. Thereafter we saw a small cooldown in fy2015 for 2 years & since fy_2017 despite too many hurdles like US_China trade tensions in Fy_2017, Covid in Fy_2020, Russia_Eukraine war in fy_2022 and even Fy_2023 with Israel_Hamas war. In fact, post the big corrections of Fy_2008 which stayed intact till Fy_2014 we saw the strong rally till 21802 from 6357 resistance level of correction in 2008. This is 15445 Nifty points rally which is 2.5X in just 9 years. Even GDP has grown from 1.9 USD Trillion to 3.7 USD Trillion which was the fastest among all major economies doubling the size of the economy giving direct impact to the stock market. The Indian stock market was the best performer of this decade v/s all other major indices and its 2x to world average performance. Now ahead liest the election year which can give high volatility. Demand is to be there for a long time, Inflation now is getting cool off and interest rate cycle from this year may be in decline mode all of which are positive profit of companies. Last year inflation cooled off helped raise the profits and this year cool off in interest rates can boost the profits along with demand. As we end the year Nifty has already given the breakout leading the world indices and even Dow is following giving the breakout in the last week of the year. Since the start of 1990, we never saw a higher high for 7 years in a row, so yes, the last 7 years were the exceptional Year both in GDP performance as well as in Market v/s world GDP & Market. Overall during the past 20 years we saw 13% CAGR return from Nifty v/s 7% by Dow Jones. During the 20th Century last 40 years world GDP grew by 8% while Indian GDP underperformed with the growth of just 6%. in the 21st Century we saw Indian GDP grow by 10% v/s World GDP growth of 5%. The 21st century is India’s time, and yes we can say India’s time has come.
What to expect in 2024: Nifty is 21731:
The +ve bias could continue further for the 8th year in the row with the higher high & 4th year in the row with the higher low and the higher close. The +ve bias could be seen towards 23143 which would be the 1st target for the year 2024. Later the rally could be seen towards 25094 & even 28387. The overall rally could be seen towards 29678 in the next few years. The high volatility could be seen due to upcoming elections, hence stay even cash rich. Strong support for the full year should be 18439 to 16828. This should be the range to focus during election volatility. The -ve trend in the current situation could again re-enter if & only if Nifty falls below 16828 else biases could be flat to +ve, hence track 16828 closely this year for the decisive move ahead. Trigger points for next year elections, Reverse Interest rate Cycle and recovery in the US market. The Rule should be simple: New buying can be done during any falls to benefit from the rally.
Nifty 2024 Pivot Points: 20120
Resistance: 23413, 25094, 28387
Support: 18439, 15146, 13465
+ve broader indices for coming Year: Nifty_50, Next_50, Nifty_100_200_500, Midcap, Smallcap, Nifty_Bank, Nifty_Auto, Commodities, Consumption, CPSE, Energy, Fin_Services, FMCG, Infra, Metal, MNC, Value_20, Pharma, PSE, PSUBank, Pvtbank
-ve broader indices for the coming Year: NA
NiftyBank: CMP: 48292
NiftyBank has overall Outperformed Nifty during the past 2 decades. If Nifty has Given 13% CAGR return during the past 20 Years then NiftyBank has given 17.7% CAGR return during the past 20 Years. We saw underperformance from PsuBanking while Private Banking erupted as an Emerging Industry and it is still growing strongly. Last year was the 1st year after a long time in the Banking industry where we saw all banks in Profits and the NPA were at lowest. Even in coming times we may see NetBank out performing Nifty. Moving ahead we may see the rally continue towards 61772 with the strong support in the range of 41724 to 34614.
Nifty Auto: CMP: 18618
After the long underperformance for around 5 years Nifty auto is again in the high momentum due to increased volumes of auto companies sales. No need to book early profits in Auto. Buy during any fall again near 14107 and the 5 year target should be 27743.
Infra: 7303
Infra has given the breakout after the long 15 years of underperformance. Current rally could be seen towards 10496 in the next 5 years while new buying can be done near 5717.
Metal: 26991
Metal has given the breakout after the long 16 years of underperformance. Current rally could be seen towards 38365 in the next 5 years while new buying can be done near 21387.
PSE: 7855
PSC has given the breakout after 16 years of underperformance. Current rally could be seen towards 12829 in the next 5 years while new buying can be done near 5403.
Crude: 71
We may see the range of 95 to 58 this Year.
Fundamentals: as per current announced earnings and not as per Forwarding earnings.
Nifty Intrinsic Value as per current earnings
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Disclosure: Do not initiate before consulting your advisor as the writer may have the position in the above index.
SEBI (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014
What are all the communications excluded from the definition of the research report?
"Research report” does not include the following communications:-
i. comments on general trends in the securities market
ii. discussions on the broad-based indices; iii. commentaries on economic, political or market conditions; iv. periodic reports or other communications prepared for unitholders of Mutual Fund or Alternative Investment Fund or clients of Portfolio Managers and Investment Advisers;
v. internal communications that are not given to current or prospective clients;
vi. communications that constitute offer documents or prospectus that are circulated as per regulations made by SEBI vii. statistical summaries of financial data of the companies viii. technical analyses relating to the demand and supply in a sector or index ix. any other communication which SEBI may specify from time to time [Ref. Regulation 2(1)(w)]
Making buy/sell/hold recommendation on individual stocks based on the technical analysis is not exempted under the purview of the RA Regulations. However, technical analyses relating to the demand and supply for a particular sector or index is exempted from the purview of the RA Regulations. [Ref. Regulation 2(1)(w)]
So no disclosures required in Indices View. Still, at some places, we have given buying signals for index so disclosures are given at that places.
