📢 5 STEPS TOWARDS WEALTH 🚀 The Indian Stock Market Way
1. National Income & Growth Trends
GDP Growth at Current Prices: Despite fluctuations, GDP growth for FY24 (9.6%) and FY25 (10.5%) indicates a recovery and sustained growth trajectory. Long-term investors can expect continued economic expansion, benefiting sectors aligned with growth like infrastructure, technology, and consumption.
Sectoral Growth:
Agriculture: Stable growth around 4%-5% ensures steady rural demand.
Services: Strong growth around 7%-8%, a backbone for India’s GDP, highlights opportunities in IT, finance, and e-commerce.
Industry: Recovery in FY24 (7.6%) offers potential in manufacturing and industrial automation.
2. Inflation & Price Trends
CPI & WPI Inflation: Moderating inflation from 6.7% in FY23 to 5.4% in FY24 reduces cost pressures on companies, improving margins, especially in FMCG, consumer goods, and manufacturing. However current year FY_25 we saw a temporary surge in Inflation which should be cooled off further.
Fuel & Power: A decline in FY24 could reduce input costs for energy-intensive industries (e.g., cement, steel).
3. Money, Banking & Interest Rates
Bank Credit Growth: Consistent double-digit growth in FY23 (15.0%) and FY24 (15.5%) continued with 13.7% growth in Fy_25 signals strong credit demand, aiding banking, NBFCs, and capital-intensive industries.
Bank Rates: Bank rates currently are high even then pre_covid era due to spike in interest rates to curb inflation last year. We saw 2.5% increase in interest rates. This makes borrowing cost high. Further moving fall in interest rates could support low borrowing costs, driving investments in sectors like real estate and infrastructure.
4. Public Finance
Government Revenue Growth: Robust growth in gross tax receipts (13.5%-14.7% for FY25) reflects better fiscal management and revenue streams, indicating higher government spending in infrastructure and welfare programs.
Interest Expenses Decline: Reduced growth in interest expenses supports fiscal stability.
5. External Transactions
Export & Import Trends:
Export slowdown in FY24 and FY25 (-3.0%) may impact sectors dependent on global demand.
Non-POL import moderation (-2.0%) suggests balanced trade dynamics.
FII & FDI Inflows: Sustained FDI inflows ($44.1B in FY25) highlight India’s attractiveness as an investment destination. FIIs remain volatile but are expected to stabilize with policy support.
Exchange Rate Stability: The rupee's stability (₹86/$ in FY25) ensures better INR management in respect to other emerging countries where exchange rates are seen as more volatile.
6. Investment Opportunities
Consumption: Rising per capita GDP (₹2,11,725 in FY25) suggests growing consumer demand, favoring FMCG, retail, and automobiles.
Infrastructure: Increased government receipts and spending drive growth in construction, roads, and railways.
Technology & Services: High services sector growth supports IT, telecom, and digital platforms.
Banking & Financials: Credit expansion and fiscal support create opportunities in private and public banks.
Conclusion
The macroeconomic indicators suggest a promising long-term growth story for India. Investors should focus on sectors benefiting from:
Rising domestic demand (FMCG, auto, retail).
Infrastructure development (cement, steel, construction).
Services sector expansion (IT, telecom, financials).
Favorable government policies (green energy, Make in India).
Diversification across these key areas ensures resilience and capitalizes on India’s structural growth drivers.
