๐ฐ Price Band: โน310โโน326 | ๐งฉ Lot: 46 shares | ๐ฆ Issue Size: ~โน15.5k cr
๐๏ธ Window: 6โ8 Oct 2025 | โญ Anchor: 3 Oct 2025
๐งฑ Structure: Fresh Issue + OFS | ๐งฎ Promoter stake expected to move ~95.6% โ ~85.5% postโissue
๐ฏ Use of Proceeds: Augment TierโI capital to fund growth
๐งญ View: PositiveโModerately Positive for listing; Constructive over long term if RoE improves
Calendar
๐ Bidding: 6โ8 Oct 2025
โ
Allotment: ~9 Oct | ๐ณ Refund/credit: ~10 Oct | ๐ Listing: T+2 thereafter (indicative)
๐ก Tip: Retail should bid at Cutโoff for allotment priority.
๐งฑ Strengthen TierโI capital for growth & regulatory requirements (Fresh issue proceeds)
๐ OFS provides partial monetisation to selling shareholders without impacting capital adequacy
Primary seller in OFS: Tata Sons Pvt Ltd (plus others per final allocation table).
๐งบ Diversified, retailโled NBFC: home loans, LAP, personal/vehicle, SME/supply chain, equipment/leasing, corporate/infra/cleantech
๐ Granular, secured book: ~80% secured; retail+SME ~87.5%; 98%+ accounts < โน1 cr
๐บ๏ธ Distribution: 1,516 branches across 27 states/UTs; ~73 lakh customers
๐ Parentage: Tata brand & governance โ better liability access & cost of funds
๐งฎ Gross StageโIII (GNPA): ~1.9โ2.1% | Net StageโIII: ~0.8โ1.0%
๐ก๏ธ PCR: ~58.5% | CRAR: ~16.9% preโissue โ improves post infusion
๐ Interpretation: Lower RoA/RoE than premium peers today, but headroom to lift as operating leverage & cost of funds improve.
๐งญ Takeaway: Balanced retail/SME tilt with meaningful secured exposure.
๐ NBFC credit growth remained strong (~20% YoY in FY25) amid consumption, housing, and MSME demand
๐ Digitisation & formalisation (UPI, eโKYC, AA) โ origination frictions; BankโNBFC coโlending deepening
๐งฏ Regulatory guardrails (risk weights on unsecured) reโprice risk โ diversified, AAAโparented NBFCs gain share
๐งฎ NBFC share of system credit trending near ~20%; retailโled franchises likely sustained runway
๐ Risks to monitor: unsecured retail/MFI stress pockets, liquidity cycles, and regulatory tightening.
๐งญ Read: Bajaj Finance is the leading company of all along with best NPA. P/B below Bajaj/Chola (premium leaders); asset quality competitive; RoA/RoE needs uplift for reโrating.
๐งฐ Brand + Scale + Diversification โ premium to median NBFCs is justified
๐งฑ Capital raise supports multiโyear compounding โ potential RoE lift
โ๏ธ Priced below topโtier leaders on P/B โ leaves headroom if execution stays strong
Assumptions (Base): AUM CAGR 18โ20% (FY25โFY30) & 15โ17% (FY30โFY35); NIM ~5.7โ6.2%; Credit cost 1.5โ1.7%; steady opex; tax ~25%.
FairโValue Bands (EPS ร PE)
๐งฏ Conservative (22ร FY30E): โน375โ420
๐งญ Base (28ร FY30E): โน475โ530
๐ Bull (35ร FY30E): โน595โ665
โ ๏ธ Educational only. Outcomes depend on growth, margin, credit costs, and regulation.
๐ Strengths
๐งบ Diversified, retailโheavy franchise; ~80% secured; granular book
๐งฒ AAA parentage (Tata) โ liability comfort & brand trust
๐งฑ Capital infusion โ supports runway & buffers against shocks
โ ๏ธ Risks
๐ณ Unsecured pockets (~20%) โ needs vigilant cycle management
๐งฎ Sector credit costs > banks; regulatory vigilance on unsecured/MFI
๐ Fast growth (incl. integrations) must not dilute underwriting discipline
๐ Bajaj Finance: This is the company that is leading in majority of the parameters and should be given more priority than Tata Capital.
However if we keep Bajaj aside and view only Tata Capital then:
๐ Listing View: Positive โ Moderately Positive (pricing headroom vs leaders + brand pull)
๐ LongโTerm: Constructive if RoE trends toward 15โ17% with scale & lower funding cost
๐ค Suitable for: Investors seeking a diversified NBFC play with brand/governance comfort and accepting NBFCโspecific risks
Business Quality: โญโญโญโญโ
Growth Visibility (5โ10 yrs): โญโญโญโญโ
Asset Quality Discipline: โญโญโญโญโ
Management/Governance: โญโญโญโญโญ
Valuation Comfort vs Leaders: โญโญโญโญโ
Overall: 4.3/5 โ Apply (LT bias)
In this case Bajaj Finance should get a better overall rating like 4.75/5 which could be the highest standard among all NBFCโs.
๐งพ Cutโoff bidding advisable for Retail (RII)
๐งฎ UPI mandate approval window: watch SMS/app notifications
๐งโ๐ผ HNI (sNII/bNII): consider funding cost vs expected listing pop; oversubscription drives odds
This writeโup is for investor education. It uses the RHP you provided and standard public data. It is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell
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