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Apollo Hospitals (AHEL) — FY26e Investor Deep-Dive

Lesson 112/225 | Study Time: 15 Min

Course: Top Quality Companies

Apollo Hospitals (AHEL) — FY26e Investor Deep-Dive

Snapshot • Tailwinds • Q1 FY26 KPIs • Segments • 30-Year History • Valuation Bands • Fair-Values • Risks • Portfolio Note

Apollo Hospitals (AHEL) FY26e: KPIs, Segment Mix, 30-Year History, Valuation Bands & Long-Term Outlook
Investor-grade analysis of Apollo Hospitals—Q1 FY26 KPIs (ARPP & occupancy), segment & cost mix, 30-year revenue/profit trends, historical PE/PBV bands, FY26/30/35 fair-value ranges, peer comparison, risks, and portfolio note.

📌 Executive Summary

Compounding leader: Multi-decade growth; Q1 FY26 shows double-digit revenue and strong profit momentum with improving operating leverage.
Integrated stack moat: Hospitals (HCS) + AHLL (Retail Health & Diagnostics) + HealthCo (Digital/Distribution).
Valuation: Premium quality; FY30 blended fair value ~₹10,120 on your framework; FY35 ~₹16,870 (illustrative).
Key watch-outs: Bed-ramp, ARPP & mix, HealthCo break-even, and demerger execution.

🏥 Company Snapshot & Moats

Scale & network: Trusted pan-India brand with deep specialty mix (cardiac/oncology/neuro/gastro/ortho).
Omnichannel rails: Hospital + diagnostics + pharmacy/digital improves lifetime value & data flywheel.
Pricing power via complexity: Shift to ARPP (average revenue per patient) captures true realization per patient.
Operating discipline: Procurement, private labels, and mix management support margin resilience.

🌏 India Healthcare Tailwinds

Demand drivers: Aging population, lifestyle diseases (NCDs), insurance penetration, medical tourism.
Supply gap: Beds/1,000 below global averages; organized chains gain share.
Policy support: AB-PMJAY, infra upgrades, public-private partnerships.
Result: Multi-year runway for mid-teens growth for well-positioned leaders.

📊 Q1 FY26 KPIs (Consolidated)

Revenue: ₹5,842 cr | EBITDA: ₹852 cr | PAT: ₹433 cr
Trail EPS (not annualised): ₹109.4
ARPP: ₹1,72,282 (+9% YoY)
Occupancy: ~65%

🧩 Segment & Regional Mix; ⚙️ Cost Structure (Q1 FY26)

Revenue mix:

Healthcare Services (HCS): ~51%
AHLL (Retail Health & Diagnostics): ~7%
HealthCo (Digital & Distribution): ~42%

Visuals:

Segment Mix:
Cost Structure:

📈 30-Year Revenue, Profit & NPM

30-Year table (1995–Trail FY26):
Charts:

Revenue & Profit:

NPM% History:

🔢 Valuation Bands — Multi-Cycle Context

PE (low–high) bands and PBV (low–high) bands showcase premium through cycles; useful for mean-reversion framing.

PE Bands:

PBV Bands:

🎯 Scenario Fair-Values (EPS & PBV; blended)

Year	EPS	Book Value	Low @EPS	Fair @EPS	High @EPS	Low @PBV	Fair @PBV	High @PBV	Blended Fair
FY26E	134	678	5,751	8,092	10,432	3,051	5,052	7,052	6,876
FY30E	188	1,106	8,085	11,376	14,666	4,975	8,237	11,498	10,120
FY35E	331	1,624	14,249	20,048	25,847	7,310	12,102	16,895	16,870

Note: Bands are illustrative from your EPS/PBV frameworks; update as beds ramp, ARPP/mix evolves, and HealthCo profitability improves.

🤝 Peer Snapshot (Q1 FY26 unless noted)

Company	Revenue (₹ cr)	EBITDA Margin	Occupancy	ARPOB/ARPP (₹)	Notes
Apollo	5,842	14.6%	65%	ARPP 1,72,282	Integrated stack; ARPP focus
Max Healthcare	2,069	19.6%	76%	~78,000/day	Margin leader among peers
Fortis	1,906	~16%	69%	n/a	Solid occupancy
Narayana Health	1,531	23.8%	n/d	n/d	High throughput (Cayman strength)
KIMS	879	22.7%	48.8%	43,011/day	Strong regional economics

Visuals:

Peer Occupancy:
Peer EBITDA Margin:

⚠️ Risks & What to Track

Execution: Timely bed additions and occupancy ramp.
Pricing/regulatory: Insurance reimbursements, policy caps.
Case-mix & ALOS variability (intl patients, specialty mix).
Digital economics: HealthCo profitability and break-even trajectory.
Demerger execution: Pharmacy/Digital separation milestones & timelines.

🧭 Portfolio Weighting Note (Illustrative)

Reference price ₹7,830; Strategic weight ~1.45%, factor 0.71 ⇒ Tech weight ~1.03%.
Adjust with your MFS/TAF, client risk bands, and valuation cycle signal.

🧾 Disclosures

Educational content for investors. Not investment advice or a SEBI research report. Use with your diligence, risk tolerance, and horizon.

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