Maruti Suzuki India Ltd: Driving India’s Auto Growth Story 🚗
1. Company Overview
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) is India’s largest passenger vehicle manufacturer with a dominant market share in compact and utility vehicle segments. Over the last two decades, MSIL has built unmatched distribution, scale, and brand recall, supported by its parent Suzuki Motor Corporation (Japan).
The company operates across segments – Mini, Compact, Mid-size, Utility Vehicles (UVs), Vans, LCVs, and exports. Its long-term focus remains on capacity expansion (Kharkhoda plant), localization of technology, and growing exports.
2. Industry Outlook 🌏
Passenger Vehicles (PV) Industry: Expected CAGR of 6–8% till FY2030, led by New Technological Change in Models, rising incomes, premiumization, and rural demand revival.
SUV & UV Growth: India’s SUV penetration has crossed 50% of PV sales, where MSIL is aggressively expanding with models like Brezza, Jimny, and Grand Vitara.
EV Transition: MSIL plans its EV launch in 2025–26, with full-scale rollout expected by 2030.
Export Market: Exports already form ~18% of sales volumes, with Africa and Latin America driving future demand. Now looking to 100 Countries for export with even Japan emerging as 2nd largest Market.
3. Financial Performance – Historical Growth 📊
Revenue & Profit Trends (₹ Cr)
FY2004: ₹9,751 Cr sales | ₹542 Cr profit
FY2010: ₹29,623 Cr sales | ₹2,498 Cr profit
FY2020: ₹75,611 Cr sales | ₹5,651 Cr profit
FY2024: ₹1,41,858 Cr sales | ₹13,488 Cr profit
FY2025: ₹1,52,913 Cr sales | ₹14,500 Cr profit
Tr. FY2026 (Est.): ₹1,81,171 Cr sales | ₹14,827 Cr profit
💡 Over 20 years, Sales CAGR ~13%, Profit CAGR ~15%.
Margins
Historically volatile between 5–10%, influenced by input costs and forex.
Latest trend: FY25 margins at 9.5%, while Tr. FY26 margins moderated to 8.2%.
4. Q1 FY26 Performance Highlights
Sales Volume: 5.28 lakh units (+1.1% YoY).
Revenue: ₹3,66,247 Mn (+8.1% YoY).
Operating EBIT: ₹30,578 Mn (-19% YoY, margin pressure).
PAT: ₹37,117 Mn (+1.7% YoY).
EBIT Margin: 8.3% vs. 11.1% (YoY decline due to commodity & forex impact).
Export Growth: +37% YoY, now 18.4% of sales.
5. Segmental Insights 🚙
Domestic Sales: 4.31 lakh units (-4.5% YoY).
Mini + Compact cars: -11% (structural demand shift).
UVs: -1% (competition pressure but MSIL remains strong).
Exports: 97k units (+37% YoY).
Key Trend: SUVs and Exports are offsetting weakness in entry-level cars.
6. Peer Comparison 🔎
Maruti trades at a premium PE and PBV vs. peers, justified by its scale, market share, and brand equity.
7. Valuation History 📈
PE Range (Last 20Y): 8x – 73x (median ~26x).
PBV Range: 1.2x – 4.9x.
Current implied PE (Tr FY26): ~24–29x, suggesting valuations are near fair-to-upper range.
8. Growth Outlook & Estimates 🔮
Management Guidance & Trends:
FY26E: Sales growth ~9.5%, Profit growth ~6%.
FY30E: Revenue ~₹2.6 lakh Cr, Profit ~₹21k Cr, EPS CAGR ~12%.
FY35E: Revenue ~₹4.6 lakh Cr, Profit ~₹37k Cr, EPS CAGR ~15%.
📌 Focus on hybrids + EVs, exports scale-up, premiumization of SUV lineup.
9. Risks ⚠️
Commodity price volatility.
Competitive intensity in SUV/EV segment.
Regulatory norms on emissions & safety.
Currency fluctuations impacting exports.
10. Conclusion 🎯
Maruti Suzuki remains India’s auto sector bellwether – a leader in passenger vehicles with structural levers in SUVs, EV transition, and exports. While margins are cyclical, long-term growth in India’s auto demand supports MSIL’s compounding potential.
Risk–Reward: Attractive for long-term investors on dips near low PE (23–25x) and with strong allocation to exports + SUVs.
