📊 UBL Q3 FY25 & 9M FY25 Performance Analysis – Investor Insights 💹
🟡 1. Volume Growth: Segment & Regional Performance
📈 Q3 FY25 Volume Growth: +8% YoY 🚀 (Premium Volume +33% 🌟)
📊 YTD (9M FY25): Volume +6% | Premium Volume +35% 📈
📍 Regional Highlights:
🏔️ North: +16% (Uttar Pradesh & Rajasthan 🚀)
🧧 East: +3% (Assam & Meghalaya 🟢; West Bengal & Odisha 🔻)
🌞 South: +8% (Telangana & Andhra Pradesh 🟢; Tamil Nadu & Kerala 🔻)
🌇 West: +4% (Maharashtra & Madhya Pradesh 🟢; Goa 🔻)
💎 Premium Brands Leading Growth: Kingfisher Ultra 🍻, Ultra Max 🏆, Heineken® Silver 🍺
💰 2. Consolidated Sales & Profit Growth (Q3 & 9M FY25):
📊 Q3 FY25 Consolidated Results:
💸 Net Sales: ₹4,42,655 Lakhs (+6.54% YoY from ₹4,15,498 Lakhs) 🚀
💰 Profit After Tax (PAT): ₹3,852 Lakhs (-55.1% YoY from ₹8,580 Lakhs) 🔻
📊 9M FY25 Consolidated Results:
💸 Net Sales: ₹14,98,139 Lakhs (+10.2% YoY from ₹13,59,085 Lakhs) 📈
💰 Profit After Tax (PAT): ₹34,465 Lakhs (+4.66% YoY from ₹32,931 Lakhs) 💪
💡 Profit Growth Insight:
Q3 FY25: PAT decline primarily due to increased expenses and a ₹2,576 Lakhs exceptional cost (severance pay) 📉
9M FY25: PAT grew due to improved gross margins, premiumization, and cost-saving initiatives 💰
📉 3. Profit Margins Analysis:
💡 Q3 FY25 vs Q3 FY24:
🟡 Gross Margin: 43.1% (🔻 86 bps)
🟠 EBITDA Margin: 7.6% (🔻 174 bps)
🟠 EBIT Margin: 4.5% (🔻 197 bps)
🔴 PAT Margin: 1.9% (🔻 274 bps)
💡 9M FY25 vs 9M FY24:
🟢 Gross Margin: 43.3% (+46 bps) 💪
🟢 EBITDA Margin: 10.3% (+31 bps)
🟢 EBIT Margin: 7.7% (+21 bps)
🟠 PAT Margin: 5.2% (🔻 27 bps)
📝 Insight: Margin recovery YTD due to cost efficiencies despite Q3 pressures.
💎 4. Profitability, Solvency, Liquidity & Valuation (At CMP ₹2030):
📊 Profitability Ratios:
💰 ROE: 8.29%
💰 ROCE: 9.68%
📈 Net Profit Margin: 5.2%
📊 EBITDA Margin: 10.3%
🛡️ Solvency Ratios:
🟢 Debt-to-Equity: 0.02 (Minimal leverage 💪)
💪 Interest Coverage: 72x (Strong debt service capacity)
💧 Liquidity Ratios:
💧 Current Ratio: 1.89 (Healthy liquidity)
💧 Quick Ratio: 1.25 (Strong short-term solvency)
📊 Valuation Ratios (CMP ₹2030):
💵 Trail EPS: ₹16.08 📊
💰 P/E (TTM): 126x (Premium valuation 🟡)
📊 EV/EBITDA: 22.1x (Industry-leading, but premium-priced 🟠)
🏢 5. Key Industry KPIs & Comparisons:
💎 Premiumization: Premium segment grew +35% YTD, outpacing total volume growth 🚀
📊 Cost Trends: COGS rose +9% YTD (Raw material inflation) 🔺
💰 Excise Impact: Excise duty +10% YTD (State-level changes) 💸
📈 Operational Efficiency: Productivity program to save ₹50 Cr annually 💡
📈 6. Outlook – Near-Term & Long-Term:
🔍 Near-Term (Next 2 Quarters):
🚀 Premium Growth Focus: Kingfisher Ultra, Ultra Max, Heineken® Silver 📈
💪 Supply Chain Strengthening: Ahead of peak season 📊
🟠 Margin Watch: Cost-saving initiatives to offset input inflation 🛡️
🌟 Long-Term:
🏭 Expansion Plans: Greenfield brewery in Uttar Pradesh 🍺
💎 Premiumization Strategy: Focus on high-margin segments 📊
💰 Demographic Tailwinds: Rising disposable incomes & favorable trends 🛒
🛡️ Sustainability Focus: ₹50 Cr cost savings via productivity initiatives 🌿
💡 Investor Takeaways:
✅ Growth Story Intact: Volume growth + premiumization trends are positive 📈
✅ Financial Strength: Strong balance sheet with minimal leverage 💪
✅ Cost Focus: ₹50 Cr annual savings through productivity programs 💰
✅ Valuation Insight: Premium P/E of 39x reflects UBL's market leadership but may be a bit rich for short-term investors 🟠
💎 Long-term Buy: Leadership, premiumization, and expansion plans make UBL a solid long-term bet. 📈
📉 Short-term Watch: Monitor margin recovery and cost pressures for near-term entry opportunities. 💹
📢 Disclaimer & Disclosure Statement
Important Investor Advisory Notice
This research analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or legal advice. The information provided herein is based on publicly available financial reports, market data, and our analysis. Investors are advised to exercise caution and discretion before making any investment decisions.
